Monitoring of average monthly spring temperatures and their relationship with crop yields in the Lugansk People's Republic

DOI: 10.34736/FNC.2026.133.2.005.45-54   ____   ____ ____

Starodvorov Gennady Aleksandrovich, Candidate of Agricultural Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Ecology and Nature Management, Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education "Lugansk State Agrarian University named after K. E. Voroshilov", Lugansk, Russia. 291008, Lugansk People's Republic, Lugansk urban district, Lugansk, Artemovsky district, LNAU campus, 1. ORCID: 0009-0001-7408-5540.

e-mail: starodvorow@mail.ru,

Dolgikh Ekaterina Dmitrievna, Senior Lecturer of the Department of Ecology and Nature Management, Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education "Lugansk State Agrarian University named after K. E. Voroshilov", Lugansk, Russia. 291008, Lugansk People's Republic, Lugansk urban district, Lugansk, Artemovsky district, LNAU campus, 1. ORCID: 0009-0001-7408-5540.

e-mail: dolgih@mail.ru

Abstract.Average monthly air temperature is one of the key abiotic factors in the Lugansk People's Republic (LPR) and represents one of the most variable indicators of the region’s thermal regime. Changes in abiotic environmental conditions may have either positive effects on plant productivity (yield increase) or negative effects (yield decrease). The study uses the Statistica 10 software package to forecast the parameter under investigation based on a long‑term air temperature trend model. The aim of this study is to determine the relationship between average monthly air temperature during the spring months and crop yields, as well as to conduct monitoring, assessment, and forecasting of temperature conditions at the regional level over a long‑term period (1838‑2024). The results show that the most pronounced increase in the average monthly near‑surface air temperature occurs in March and May, while the increase in April is less significant. A statistically significant positive correlation (r = 0.37; p ≤ 0.05) was found between the average monthly temperature in March and winter wheat yield. This relationship can be explained by the earlier resumption of vegetation under warmer March conditions. The remaining correlations are positive but not statistically significant, including those for sunflower yield, despite its sowing period occurring in April‑May.

Keywords.Abiotic factors; descriptive statistics; spring months; correlation analysis; relationship; air temperature; empirical data.

For citation. Starodvorov G. A., Dolgikh E. D. Monitoring of average monthly spring temperatures and their relationship with crop yields in the Lugansk People's Republic // Scientific Agronomy Journal. 2026; 2(133):45-54. 10.34736/FNC.2026.133.2.005.45-54.

Funding. The work was carried out without external financing.

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